2009 NFL Predictions
The one constant in the NFL this decade is that pre-season predictions are doomed to go wrong like Eli Manning making a pressure decision. Looking back, outside of the Patriots' second and third championships, and the Colts' win over the Bears three years ago, no team with high expectations has won a Super Bowl in this decade. The 2000 Rams were expected to steamroll through their schedule. In 2001, the Steelers blew the AFC Championship, the Raiders got robbed in the divisional round. The Eagles couldn't exorcise their demons in 2002. The Parcells Cowboys couldn't beat any good teams in 2003. In 2005 the 14-2 Colts blew the championship game. The Patriots blew the Super Bowl in the worst way the next year. My point is that these teams and many others this decade went into that season with high expectations, and because the NFL is an unpredictable league, those expectations seemed silly by the end of that year.
So for example, if you expect the Steelers to repeat, or the Cardinals to go deep into the playoffs, then my bet is that by mid-season you'll change your mind, and that by playoff time you'll question your own sanity. The fact of the matter is that only Pittsburgh's defensive scheme, not the players, and certainly not the offense is what wins them games. But if last year is any indication, as it is for everyone else making predictions, then Pittsburgh's offense can't afford to have swing games. Meaning that poor offensive showings against Dallas, Cleveland, San Diego, and Baltimore (along with help from the officials) could have easily translated to four close losses instead of four close wins. The difference between 12-4 and 8-8 is that slim, even for teams that are considered good. The Cardinals are and average team in a bad division. They do though, have great talent on offense, but no longer have the offensive coordinator that took them on their Super Bowl run. The Cardinals were a 9-7 team that backed into the playoffs. They gave up 56 points to the Jets a week after losing to Washington. They gave up 48 points to Philadelphia on Thanksgiving. Tarvaris Jackson threw for four touchdowns against them, and we all know that Tarvaris Jackson gets treated like Rex Grossman by NFL fans. Any good team at any time can light up the Cardinals, and to me, the Cardinals are proof of the flukey nature of the NFL playoffs in recent years.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-7 Wild Card
Arizona Cardinals: 6-10 No Playoffs
If you're expecting Mark Sanchez to take control of the public eye in New York and stamp his name on a few wins, you're right, but I highly doubt it will really be his doing. You'll be able to expect from Sanchez something of a cross between Eli Manning's first full season and Joe Flacco's. Both went 11-5. Both had bruising defenses and a tough rushing attack. Both, especially Manning, were and are rarely placed in situations where real decisions need to be made (the opposite of this is the bevy of trust given by the Eagles to Donovan Mcnabb). Sanchez' is on a team with the AFC's leading rusher, Thomas Jones, a dominant checkdown back, Leon Washington, and a Rex Ryan, Ravens'-style defense with one of the better corners in the league, Darelle Revis. Of the rookie quarterbacks starting this year, Sanchez' team will have the best season, but the less than savvy football fans in New York will say he's the reason.
New York Jets: 10-6 Wild Card
Detroit Lions: 8-8 No Playoffs
With my opinions on the quarterback position shown through the evaluation of Manning, Flacco, and now Sanchez, I must make it further known that I truly believe that a gunslinging sort of quarterback has only won three Super Bowls in my lifetime. Brett Favre in 1996 won after the Packers' defense finally came together for them and toppled the 49ers. John Elway had to beat another gunslinger, Favre to win his first Super Bowl, and beat a bad Atlanta team (one very much like the 2008 Cardinals) to get his second. Kurt Warner ran a great offense with the Rams, but is more the hold-the-ball-too-long type than the throw-it-through-seven guys type that Favre is. But in the last twenty-five years, Doug Williams, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Troy Aikman, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning have all won the Super Bowl as game managers with average or below average skill sets. My point here is that Brett Favre makes some of the worst decisions any quarterback can make on a down-to-down basis, but the Hall-of-Fame highlight video won't show every down. The Vikings might have been better off not feeding into the media-generated notion that quarterbacks are still the most important part of an entire team and realize that they can change their offensive scheme to put Tarvaris Jackson in better situations and trust their highly-touted defense. Brad Childress, who will be fired at the end of this year, should be following Tom Coughlin's blueprint for riding a horse-running back and a punishing defense to a championship, the quarterback, on most great teams, is usually an efficient accessory.
Vikings: 8-8 No Playoffs
Giants: 8-8 Wild Card (Make sure to tune in to the last game of the season)
The Philadelphia Eagles are a cursed team. Cursed with bad NFC Championship game losses, cursed with shotty play-calling and game management, cursed with devastating injuries, cursed with season-killing decisions and controversies. For the first time in a very long time, they will be cursed with high expectations. The problem with today's NFL is that most still think it's a player's league. The players are the ones in the spotlight, making huge money, and using highlight shows to force people into thinking that they win and lose games. This is, without a doubt in my mind, a coordinators league when it comes to all things that matter, and teams with certain strengths who lost a coordinator in that department just can not be the same teams. The Colts will seem different offensively, so will the Giants on defense. The Eagles though, without Jim Johnson controlling the defense, and without any real impact player on defense (both starting corners are ex-patriots, who have always had that Patriot knack for coming up big when properly placed), will be a much different defensive team. The Redskins, Cowboys and Giants will all benefit from this, all hovering in the 11-5 to 8-8 range, and all making the playoffs in a conference with no good teams west of Dallas.
Washington Redskins: 10-6 Wild Card
Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 Conference Championship Game
Philadelphia Eagles: 6-10 No Playoffs (Look out for a major injury on offense)
As for the Super Bowl, expect the NFC to produce another fluke representative, like the Saints. The Saints and the rest of the NFC South play the NFC East this year, and if those four poor pass defenses get torched by the Saints' passing attack, then New Orleans has a real shot to beat any teams that might also be fighting for a playoff spot, and may be able to back into the playoffs with a below-average defense. Sound strange to you? They did the same in 2006, making the NFC Championship game. The Cardinals last year and the Giants in 2007 reached the Super Bowl in the same fashion. Everyone questioned the Bears throughout the 2006 season, and how relevant were the 2005 Seahawks? This year's AFC is much like the NFC of recent years: wide open, with a whole lot of flawed teams. Expect a team like the Chargers to have a great record in a division with three rebuilding teams, and play at home throughout the playoffs.
Super Bowl XLIV:
Chargers, 37
Saints, 31
And if I'm wrong? Well, everyone is usually wrong, but I hope you're thinking a little more logically now.
